Goldman Sachs poll shows Strait of Hormuz constraints and $100 Brent expectations
Updated
Updated · The Wall Street Journal · May 8
Goldman Sachs poll shows Strait of Hormuz constraints and $100 Brent expectations
8 articles · Updated · The Wall Street Journal · May 8
Among 837 institutional clients surveyed on May 4-6, most expected traffic to normalise only by end-July or later, while 40% saw disruption lasting beyond July.
Eighteen percent expected Brent at $100 or more by end-2026, a quarter saw $90-$100, and a third forecast $80-$90; Brent settled at $100.06 on Thursday.
The findings reinforce Wall Street's view that the U.S.-Iran Hormuz crisis will keep oil supplies tight, after traders embraced the 'NACHO' trade for a prolonged disruption.
As oil and stock markets send opposite signals, who is misreading the Hormuz crisis?
Can a taxpayer-backed insurance plan reopen the Strait of Hormuz where military threats have failed?
Strait of Hormuz Blockade Halts 20% of Global Oil, Triggering Prolonged Inflation and Recession Risks
Overview
In early March 2026, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, blocking 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies and triggering the largest supply disruption in history. Failed U.S.-Iran talks, a U.S. naval blockade, and Iranian attacks deepened the crisis, shifting markets to the 'NACHO' trade with rising oil prices and inflation fears. Shipping was rerouted around Africa, doubling transit times and sharply increasing freight costs, while global inflation and recession risks grew. Southeast Asia faced fuel rationing, prompting accelerated investments in green energy and a realignment toward U.S. LNG exports. The prolonged stalemate highlights deep geopolitical divisions and exposes critical vulnerabilities in global energy security and supply chains.