BMI said front-month Brent recently retraced to about $98 after spiking, while SEB said it swung from $108.8 to $96.8 in Wednesday's session.
Analysts said futures understate tighter physical supply, with Dated Brent above $130 and some Middle Eastern grades above $135 as shortages, shipping costs and insurance squeeze refiners.
They warned reduced refinery runs could lift fuel costs further, while any peace deal and normalized Persian Gulf traffic may ease prices; risks remain tied to Hormuz and US economic data.
Why do oil futures ignore the record-high prices being paid for physical barrels of scarce crude?
With the Strait of Hormuz shut, is a global economic crisis worse than the 1970s now inevitable?
Can emergency oil reserves and pipelines truly counter the loss of 20% of the world's daily supply?
The 2026 Strait of Hormuz Blockade: A Historic 600 Million Barrel Supply Shock and Global Energy Crisis
Overview
In April 2026, the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut down due to escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, cutting off 20% of global seaborne oil supply and causing tanker traffic to plummet. This blockade triggered a sharp surge in physical crude prices, creating a historic gap with futures markets and forcing refiners, especially in Asia, to cut production and pay record premiums for alternative supplies. The crisis exposed severe vulnerabilities in global energy security, worsened by damaged Gulf infrastructure and prolonged recovery timelines. The resulting energy shortage sparked a global inflation surge, disrupted economic growth, and accelerated strategic shifts, including the UAE's exit from OPEC, reshaping the future of energy markets and policy priorities.