Pacific El Niño builds and is expected to crest in late 2027
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · May 6
Pacific El Niño builds and is expected to crest in late 2027
10 articles · Updated · The New York Times · May 6
The climate pattern could be stronger than the 2015-16 “Super” El Niño and possibly the most intense since 1877, arriving on top of human-driven global warming.
Scientists expect harsher heat, drought, flooding, disrupted hurricanes and monsoons, and possible crop failures worldwide, raising the chance that 2027 becomes the hottest year on record.
The report says historic El Niños brought famine and mass death across Asia, Africa and Latin America, and warns future damage will depend heavily on social and political vulnerability.
Will this 'climate monster' event trigger a permanent shift in global weather patterns?
The last great El Niño caused millions of deaths. Can our modern world prevent a similar catastrophe?
As two massive Pacific heatwaves converge, are we entering an era of unpredictable climate chaos?
2026 Super El Niño Forecast: A 33% Chance of the Strongest Event in 150 Years
Overview
In May 2026, strong westerly wind bursts disrupted Pacific trade winds, triggering a significant buildup of warm subsurface ocean heat. This combination, along with unusually low salinity and ongoing climate change factors like elevated ocean heat and Arctic ice loss, is driving the projected 2026-2027 El Niño event. This event is expected to cause diverse regional impacts, including wetter conditions and flood risks in the southern US, drought and heat stress in the Pacific Northwest and Asia-Pacific, and widespread disruptions to agriculture and health globally. The synergy between El Niño and climate change also raises the likelihood of record-breaking global temperatures, extreme weather, sea level rise, and economic challenges worldwide.