Guardian review finds Alito voter turnout claims relied on misleading data
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · May 8
Guardian review finds Alito voter turnout claims relied on misleading data
5 articles · Updated · The Guardian · May 8
In the Louisiana map case, his opinion said Black turnout topped white turnout in two of five recent presidential elections, echoing a Justice Department brief using total voting-age population.
Using citizen voting-age population, the review found Black turnout exceeded white turnout only in 2012 in Louisiana; state registered-voter data showed no such crossover in the last five presidential elections.
Experts said the method included ineligible voters and obscured a widening national racial turnout gap since 2012, undercutting Alito's argument that Section 2 protections are no longer needed.
How does a statistical debate over voter data end up redefining a 60-year-old civil rights law?
How Flawed VAP Data Undermined the Voting Rights Act in the 2026 Supreme Court Ruling
Overview
The 2026 Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais struck down a majority-Black congressional district by relying on flawed Voting Age Population (VAP) data, which falsely suggested racial turnout parity. This decision set a nearly impossible standard for proving racial discrimination and effectively rendered key protections of the Voting Rights Act unenforceable. Coupled with the 2013 Shelby County ruling that ended federal oversight, these decisions triggered a surge of restrictive voting laws that disproportionately harm minority voters and widened racial turnout gaps. Despite intensified legislative efforts to restore voting rights, political obstacles and a hostile court environment continue to block meaningful reforms, deepening challenges to minority representation and democracy itself.