Six Welsh parties end Senedd campaign with no poll shift
Updated
Updated · Wales Online · May 7
Six Welsh parties end Senedd campaign with no poll shift
6 articles · Updated · Wales Online · May 7
After six weeks, Plaid Cymru and Reform remained tied, Labour stayed near 13%, and the Greens held about 10% ahead of the 2026 vote.
The report says manifesto launches, debates and controversies, including Reform candidate turmoil and Labour spending pledges, failed to move support as projections pointed to a fragmented Senedd.
It argues long-term realignment, not campaigning, drove the race, leaving uncertainty over coalition-building, policy delivery and even what voters were effectively choosing under the new multiparty system.
How did Reform UK surge in Wales by campaigning on issues the Welsh Parliament cannot even control?
If election campaigns are now just a 'sideshow', how will Wales's new multiparty government address urgent voter concerns?
With Labour's historic collapse, what does this election reveal about the future of the United Kingdom itself?
Political Earthquake in Wales: Plaid Cymru and Reform UK Reshape Senedd with Labour’s Collapse
Overview
The 2026 Senedd election marked a historic shift in Welsh politics, ending Labour's century-long dominance as Plaid Cymru emerged as the largest party and Reform UK made a dramatic breakthrough. This upheaval was driven by a new proportional electoral system that expanded the Senedd and amplified smaller parties, fragmenting traditional Labour and Conservative support. Labour's collapse stemmed from leadership struggles, public service failures, and a loss of voter trust. The resulting fragmented Senedd poses significant governance challenges, with Plaid Cymru seeking minority rule amid deep ideological divides, especially with Reform UK's anti-devolution stance, while Wales-UK relations face potential strain under this new political landscape.