Traders place $7bn oil-price bets before Iran policy announcements
Updated
Updated · Reuters · May 7
Traders place $7bn oil-price bets before Iran policy announcements
5 articles · Updated · Reuters · May 7
The positions spanned ICE and CME crude, diesel and gasoline futures in March and April, expanding earlier estimates of unusual trades from $2.6 billion.
Reuters said the CFTC is investigating and CME is also probing the trades, which preceded Trump announcements on ceasefires, delayed attacks and Hormuz reopening that sent oil down more than 10%.
Reuters could not identify the traders, but legal experts and lawmakers have urged scrutiny over possible insider trading or leaks, with potential profits running to hundreds of millions of dollars.
How did traders secure $7 billion in bets just before Trump's Iran policy shifts?
Could advanced AI, not human leaks, explain the perfectly timed oil market shorts?
Will investigators unmask the figures behind this potentially historic insider trading case?
In May 2026, the DOJ and CFTC launched a joint investigation into $2.6 billion in suspicious oil derivatives trades placed just before major announcements by former President Trump about the US-Iran conflict. These trades, including a $500 million bet minutes before a March 23 announcement and a $950 million bet hours before an April 7 ceasefire, coincided with sharp oil price drops. The investigation faces challenges due to anonymized trading data and difficulty proving insider links. Meanwhile, escalating conflict led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing global oil price surges, fuel shortages in Asia, inflation in Europe, and shifts in energy investments. In response, regulators and lawmakers are pushing reforms to tighten oversight, especially of prediction markets, to restore market integrity and prevent future abuses.