Kalshi traders raise odds of U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by 2027
Updated
Updated · CNBC · May 7
Kalshi traders raise odds of U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by 2027
7 articles · Updated · CNBC · May 7
After the report, Kalshi priced a 47% chance of agreement by September, while Polymarket traders put the probability before 2027 at 65%.
The report said Washington and Tehran were close to a deal to end the Middle East war and nearing a framework for nuclear negotiations, potentially including a moratorium on Iranian enrichment.
Iran said on Wednesday it was reviewing the US proposal, but neither side disclosed fresh developments on Thursday; current odds remain below mid-April peaks above 70% for a June deal.
With military strikes ongoing, is the reported U.S.-Iran peace framework simply a diplomatic illusion?
Are prediction markets just reflecting geopolitical risk, or are they now actively influencing the odds of war?