Kalshi prediction markets fail to beat experts on US jobs forecasts
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · May 7
Kalshi prediction markets fail to beat experts on US jobs forecasts
11 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · May 7
The shortfall comes on monthly US payrolls data, among the most closely watched and economically consequential economic releases.
Prediction markets have promoted themselves as delivering more accurate, real-time signals on major data events, but this test suggests Kalshi has not yet matched that promise.
The findings raise questions about whether market-based forecasting offers an edge over traditional economists on high-profile US labour market reports.
Why do prediction markets accurately forecast inflation and Fed rates, yet fail so badly on monthly jobs numbers?
As prediction markets falter on key data, could new AI models become the unchallenged future of economic forecasting?
With courts and Congress in conflict, will prediction markets be regulated as innovative finance or shut down as illegal gambling?