OPEC's grip on the US economy loosens as market share falls
Updated
Updated · Barron's · May 7
OPEC's grip on the US economy loosens as market share falls
7 articles · Updated · Barron's · May 7
Its global market share has dropped to 38% from 50% in 1973, while the US is now the world's top oil and natural gas producer.
The report says lower US import reliance has muted domestic pain in the current energy crisis, avoiding the gas lines and rationing fears seen during the 1973 embargo.
It also points to strains within OPEC after the UAE's exit and argues the group's influence has waned as US energy self-sufficiency reshapes the balance of power.
As OPEC's influence crumbles after the UAE's exit, what new power will emerge to control global oil prices?
As the U.S. leads in oil production, will it form a 'buyers' cartel' to counter the power of producers?
With the Mideast war creating a historic oil shortfall, can the global economy avoid recession without new emergency reserves?
OPEC+ Strategic Pause Amid 2026’s Looming 43 Million bpd Supply Surplus and Market Fragmentation
Overview
In early 2026, OPEC+ chose to maintain production amid a looming global oil surplus driven by record US shale output and rising Latin American supply. This surplus weakened OPEC+'s control, leading to the UAE's exit in May, which triggered a sharp oil price surge above $100 per barrel. Meanwhile, escalating conflict in the Strait of Hormuz caused attacks that disrupted key energy infrastructure, adding a risk premium and pushing prices even higher. Despite strong US production, gasoline and diesel prices rose sharply, burdening consumers and fueling inflation. The market faces growing fragmentation, demand uncertainty, and geopolitical risks, signaling a shift toward a more volatile and decentralized oil landscape.