4 articles · Updated · The Wall Street Journal · May 6
Speaking in the Oval Office, Trump said he expected crude to hit $200-$250 a barrel but was surprised it had not risen further.
Brent crude climbed from about $75 before the conflict to above $100 after it began, and traded near $101 on Wednesday.
The war has disrupted the energy industry, while US gasoline prices topped $4.50 a gallon on Wednesday, AAA said, the highest since July 2022.
How will the Iran war permanently redraw the world's energy map and its centers of power?
Can the world engineer a permanent solution to the Strait of Hormuz energy chokepoint?
With the Strait of Hormuz closed, is a global recession now simply a matter of time?
The $200 Oil Gamble: Trump’s Iran War and the Global Economic Crisis
Overview
In early 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched a military strike on Iran, prompting Iran to close the vital Strait of Hormuz, which disrupted global energy markets and caused oil prices to surge dramatically. This spike led to higher gasoline and diesel prices, fueling inflation and forcing consumers to cut discretionary spending. The conflict also triggered a stock market decline and increased shipping costs, accelerating shifts toward near-shoring of supply chains. Despite economic pain, President Trump accepted these costs as necessary to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran, threatening further military action if diplomacy failed. The ongoing blockade and uncertainty continue to strain global economies and heighten geopolitical tensions.