Reform UK and Plaid Cymru gain from Welsh political polarisation
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · May 6
Reform UK and Plaid Cymru gain from Welsh political polarisation
9 articles · Updated · The Guardian · May 6
A final YouGov poll put Plaid on 33% and Reform on 29% before Thursday’s Senedd vote, while Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan warned both parties could take control.
Wales’s new proportional system could let Reform win the most seats, but rivals have ruled out coalition deals, making government harder for Nigel Farage’s party than for Plaid.
Labour’s long dominance in Wales has weakened sharply, with voters splitting between Plaid and Reform as immigration and anti-Reform tactical voting emerge as major campaign drivers.
As Labour's century of dominance ends, who is set to win the battle for Wales's future?
With polls predicting a hung Senedd, could a 'coalition of losers' decide Wales's next government?
Wales' 2026 Senedd Election: Labour's Collapse and the Rise of Reform UK and Plaid Cymru
Overview
The May 2026 Senedd election marked a historic shift as Labour collapsed to third place, while Reform UK and Plaid Cymru surged to become the largest parties, resulting in a hung parliament with no clear majority. This outcome was shaped by the new proportional d'Hondt voting system, which amplified political divisions and voter discontent over issues like the NHS and economic insecurity. Reform UK gained support from older, British-identifying voters, while Plaid Cymru mobilized younger, Welsh-identifying progressives. The fractured Senedd has led to political deadlock, with Reform UK isolated and Plaid exploring coalitions. This polarized landscape intensifies challenges for Welsh governance, identity, and the future of devolution.