ECMWF forecasts strongest super El Niño by November
Updated
Updated · Fox Weather · May 6
ECMWF forecasts strongest super El Niño by November
12 articles · Updated · Fox Weather · May 6
Its May outlook puts the chance at 100%, up from about 55% in March, while projecting 13 named Atlantic storms and six hurricanes.
The model suggests El Niño may curb activity mainly later in the season, as Atlantic waters stay above average and near-normal activity persists near the US mainland.
It also points to above-average rain across the South and northern Gulf, with winter moisture potentially easing drought in the Southeast, while boosting eastern Pacific tropical activity.
As a record El Niño collides with geopolitical conflict, is the world prepared for an unprecedented global food crisis?
Could this year's super El Niño permanently push our planet past the critical 1.5°C climate threshold?
2026-27 Super El Niño: Oceanic Kelvin Waves Drive Historic Pacific Heat and Global Weather Extremes
Overview
Since summer 2025, the US West Coast has faced a severe marine heat wave, with ocean temperatures 3 to 5°F above average, causing harmful algal blooms, oxygen-depleted zones, and shifts in fish populations. These changes threaten fisheries and coastal tourism. Meanwhile, a massive warm water pool driven by westerly wind bursts and an unprecedented Pacific-wide warming pattern is fueling the development of a Super El Niño, expected to peak in late 2026 with record-high ocean temperatures. This event will disrupt global weather, intensify droughts and floods, shift hurricane activity, and amplify global warming, further stressing ecosystems and human systems worldwide. Climate change acts as a powerful amplifier, increasing the event's intensity and long-term impacts.