Amazon rainforest could shift to degraded grassland-like ecosystem within decades
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · May 6
Amazon rainforest could shift to degraded grassland-like ecosystem within decades
8 articles · Updated · The New York Times · May 6
A Nature study says unchecked deforestation and warming could push the world's largest tropical forest towards an irreversible tipping point within a few decades.
Researchers found forest loss reduces rainfall, amplifying heat stress and lowering the warming threshold at which large-scale ecosystem change begins.
The Amazon absorbs more than a billion tons of carbon dioxide annually, but degradation in parts of Brazil's arc of deforestation has already turned some areas into carbon sources.
If deforestation and warming thresholds are lower than once believed, what urgent actions can actually prevent catastrophic Amazon collapse before mid-century?
How might failures or successes in Amazon protection reshape global food security, climate stability, and the future of sustainable development worldwide?
Amazon Rainforest on the Brink: 38% Degraded and Facing Irreversible Collapse by 2050
Overview
Human-driven deforestation in the Amazon, averaging 7.7% loss since the 1980s, has caused an 8-11% decline in rainfall by disrupting evapotranspiration and weakening the vital 'flying rivers' that bring moisture across South America. This leads to longer dry seasons and a feedback loop that stresses the forest, accelerating resilience loss since the early 2000s. Agricultural expansion, illegal activities, and governance failures drive this deforestation, while climate change intensifies droughts and wildfires, further degrading 38% of the forest. These combined pressures push the Amazon toward a tipping point, risking irreversible transformation into a degraded savanna by 2050, with severe impacts on biodiversity, climate, and human livelihoods.