Israeli prosecutors charge Omer Ziv and air force major over military strike bets
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · May 6
Israeli prosecutors charge Omer Ziv and air force major over military strike bets
3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · May 6
Court documents say Ziv, 30, and an unnamed reserve major used classified information to place Polymarket bets on Israeli and US strikes, allegedly making about $152,000.
Prosecutors allege the major passed operational details by WhatsApp before June 2025 strikes on Iran, while Ziv placed wagers across multiple accounts and later helped convert proceeds into cash.
Both men are being held until trial, with 45 witnesses summoned; Ziv also faces aggravated espionage, a rare charge, in a case highlighting fears of insider trading on war prediction markets.
As prediction markets turn state secrets into financial assets, can any nation truly safeguard its most sensitive intelligence?
When war becomes a tradable commodity online, where is the line between financial speculation and a national security threat?
How an Israeli Air Force Reservist and Civilian Exploited Classified Intel for Prediction Market Bets
Overview
In June 2025, Omer Ziv discovered a Polymarket question about Israeli military action against Iran and soon collaborated with an Israeli Air Force major called up for emergency duty. The major leaked classified details of Operation Roaring Lion via encrypted WhatsApp, enabling Ziv to place multiple bets on Polymarket. Following the successful strikes, Ziv gained $64,000, triggering a multi-agency investigation that led to their arrest and indictment in early 2026. The case exposed serious security flaws, ethical concerns, and regulatory challenges in crypto-based prediction markets, prompting global calls for stricter oversight and legislative action to prevent misuse of sensitive military information for financial gain.