Putin's sudden death could trigger chaotic instability in Russia
Updated
Updated · Newsweek · May 6
Putin's sudden death could trigger chaotic instability in Russia
5 articles · Updated · Newsweek · May 6
The analysis says weak institutions, rival security services and elite factions could spark a power struggle, with Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin becoming acting president under Russia's constitution.
It cites reported tensions involving the FSB, Rosgvardiya and military leadership, while warning any successor would first need to seize coercive power, money and wartime command.
With about 1 million Russian casualties estimated, economic strain and returning veterans adding volatility, the report says any succession crisis could spill across Europe and raise nuclear and escalation risks.
If Putin falls, will his replacement be a pragmatic peacemaker or an even more dangerous and unpredictable hardliner?
As Kremlin elites turn on each other, is the world prepared for the chaotic collapse of a nuclear-armed state?
The Post-Putin Power Struggle: Russia’s Political Crisis and Its Global Consequences
Overview
Vladimir Putin's sudden death has triggered a fierce power struggle among Russia's elite, exposing deep divisions that were revealed earlier by the 2023 Wagner Group rebellion. This uprising shattered the illusion of Putin's control and weakened fear within the security services, accelerating elite fragmentation and regional instability, especially in Chechnya. Meanwhile, Russia faces severe economic challenges due to lost European energy markets, declining Chinese support, and a labor shortage worsened by the ongoing war in Ukraine. Public dissatisfaction and digital resistance are rising despite government repression. The deadlocked Ukraine peace talks and China's strategic support prolong the conflict, prompting NATO to adapt to hybrid threats. Western intelligence expects continued regime rigidity and plans for defense, Ukraine support, and nuclear risk mitigation amid fears that elite fragmentation could destabilize nuclear command and risk state fragmentation.