Barclays and World Bank raise oil forecasts amid Iran attacks
Updated
Updated · Semafor · May 5
Barclays and World Bank raise oil forecasts amid Iran attacks
10 articles · Updated · Semafor · May 5
Brent held near $114 a barrel and US gasoline approached $5 a gallon as Iran hit oil storage sites and tankers while the US Navy escorted ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iraq offered Basra crude at a 70% discount to attract buyers, underscoring fears over safe passage, while Goldman Sachs warned jet fuel, LPG and other refined-product supplies could plunge in Asia, Africa and Europe.
ExxonMobil said markets have not yet felt the full impact, and the crisis is accelerating investment in energy sources less exposed to the Gulf, including renewables, which drew $3 billion into global ETFs in April.
Is the Iran war truly accelerating a green transition, or will energy security fears revive fossil fuels?
Beyond oil, could blocked fertilizer and chip materials trigger a deeper recession than analysts predict?
With thousands of sailors trapped, is a global food crisis the next price for the Hormuz blockade?
Strait of Hormuz Blockade Halts 20% of Global Oil Supply, Driving Brent Crude Above $110 in 2026 Crisis
Overview
In early 2026, escalating US-Iran hostilities led Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for 20% of global oil shipments, prompting the US to impose a naval blockade. This mutual blockade caused a severe supply shock, halting millions of barrels per day and driving oil prices to multi-month highs. The crisis intensified as the UAE exited OPEC+, weakening the alliance and pursuing an independent production boost via alternative pipelines. The resulting energy disruption triggered waves of global inflation, food insecurity, and economic slowdown, especially in emerging markets and Europe. With spare capacity eroded and geopolitical tensions high, the market faces heightened volatility and systemic risks, accelerating the shift toward renewable energy investments.