NBER study finds heightened ICE activity cuts jobs for US-born and undocumented workers
Updated
Updated · The Washington Post · May 5
NBER study finds heightened ICE activity cuts jobs for US-born and undocumented workers
11 articles · Updated · The Washington Post · May 5
The paper says increased arrests cut undocumented employment by 4% to 5%, with 7,500 fewer undocumented men working in harder-hit US areas in 2025.
Researchers found one US-born man without a college degree lost a job for every six undocumented male workers leaving employment, especially in agriculture, construction and manufacturing.
The findings challenge Trump administration claims deportations create jobs for Americans; the White House defended enforcement, while economists said fear of ICE chilled work and hiring.
Beyond job losses, how could immigration enforcement shrink the U.S. economy and raise prices for consumers?
Why is a policy meant to create American jobs actually leading to more U.S.-born workers losing employment?
ICE Enforcement Surge in 2025-2026 Causes 1 Million Fewer Immigrant Workers and Raises U.S.-Born Unemployment
Overview
Heightened ICE enforcement since 2025 sharply reduced employment among undocumented immigrants through direct removals and a widespread chilling effect that increased fear and discouraged work participation. This labor loss forced businesses in immigrant-reliant sectors to scale back operations rather than hire U.S.-born workers, leading to job losses and higher unemployment among native workers. Key sectors like construction and child care faced severe shortages, causing ripple effects such as 77,000 U.S.-born mothers leaving the workforce due to reduced child care availability. These disruptions contracted regional economies, lowered tax revenues, and slowed GDP growth, highlighting that intensified enforcement harms both immigrant and native labor markets without creating new job opportunities for U.S.-born workers.