US gasoline inventories head for historical seasonal lows by late summer
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · May 5
US gasoline inventories head for historical seasonal lows by late summer
5 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · May 5
Morgan Stanley says stockpiles are on track to fall below 200 million barrels by the end of August.
The bank's analysts said the decline would deepen pressure on an already tight US fuel market disrupted by the war in Iran.
The forecast points to a global energy supply crunch persisting for months, with low inventories leaving fuel markets vulnerable through the summer.
As the Iran conflict disrupts global energy, what is the long-term plan for a more resilient supply chain?
With oil reserves dwindling and prices surging, is a severe global recession now inevitable?
How will the blockade of a single strait threaten global food security and manufacturing supply chains?
U.S. Gasoline Supply Crisis 2026: 6.1 Million Barrel Inventory Collapse Sparks Record $4.42 Gasoline Prices
Overview
In spring 2026, the U.S. gasoline supply crisis intensified as refinery outages and rising seasonal demand caused a sharp 6.1 million barrel drop in inventories, triggering gasoline and diesel price surges. This was worsened by persistently high crude oil prices above $105 per barrel, driven by geopolitical conflict that closed the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted global oil flows. Aging U.S. refining infrastructure contributed to outages, while reduced crude exports and limited import options strained supplies further. Regional vulnerabilities, especially in California and the Midwest, led to severe price spikes and economic impacts. Despite mitigation efforts, the crisis exposed deep structural weaknesses and challenges ahead for U.S. fuel security.