The warning follows a hardline statement last week by Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, presented as tougher than his father Ali Khamenei.
The report says the chance of renewed war has become irrationally high after a US-Israeli campaign that sought to end the Islamic Republic.
It frames the danger as driven by escalating pride and miscalculation, suggesting rhetoric and leadership change have increased the risk of another direct confrontation.
Did the West's strike create a more vengeful 'garrison state' in Iran, or is the regime secretly fracturing?
With the Strait of Hormuz closed, can the global economy withstand a protracted conflict as energy prices surge worldwide?
Strait of Hormuz Crisis 2025-2026: Iran’s Blockade, US Military Response, and Global Energy Fallout
Overview
In early May 2026, Iran escalated tensions by attacking the UAE and threatening to target US and commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, causing over 150 tankers to anchor outside the vital waterway. This followed a US naval blockade aimed at crippling Iran's oil revenue, which intensified Iran's internal crisis and aggressive posture. Iran weaponized the strait by imposing transit fees and deploying missiles, drones, and mines, disrupting global energy markets and severely impacting Asian economies reliant on Hormuz. The US responded with a large military operation, but faced limitations in naval capacity and mine countermeasures. Diplomatic efforts stalled amid deep mistrust and internal Iranian divisions, while Iran expanded hybrid warfare through proxies and cyberattacks, exposing US vulnerabilities and fueling broader geopolitical strains.