A year after Chancellor Friedrich Merz took office, AfD has moved into first place as his CDU/CSU slips below 25% and the SPD falls under 15%.
Analysts linked the rise to coalition infighting, weak economic performance and stalled reforms, while only 16% of Germans say they are satisfied with the government.
The trend is strongest in eastern Germany ahead of September regional elections, and pressure is growing on Merz as just 24% expect his coalition to last until 2029.
Facing a trade war and a broken coalition, can Germany’s government survive the far-right’s historic surge?
With plans for 'remigration' and a pro-Russian turn, how close is Germany's far-right to gaining actual state power?
Chancellor Merz tried fighting the far-right on its own terms. Why did this strategy only make them stronger?
Far-Right AfD Tops German Polls at 28%, Deepening Political Fragmentation and Uncertainty
Overview
In April 2026, the far-right AfD surged to a record 28% in national polls, driven by strong support in eastern Germany and growing economic and political dissatisfaction, especially with Chancellor Merz's government. The party's hardline stance on immigration, opposition to military aid for Ukraine, and nationalist vision have broadened its appeal beyond its traditional base. This rise has fractured Germany's political landscape, forcing complex three-party coalitions and increasing instability. Despite being labeled extremist and isolated by other parties, the AfD's influence grows, threatening democratic norms and challenging Germany's role in NATO and the EU, with projections suggesting it could become the largest Bundestag party by 2029.