Independent analyst Mary Johnson raised her estimate from 1.7% in March after new CPI data showed inflation at a two-year high, with the final figure due after third-quarter data in October.
The adjustment is based on average third-quarter CPI-W changes, and higher energy prices linked to global conflicts are driving the latest inflation surge.
A bigger COLA would be the largest since 2024, but analysts note it reflects worsening price pressures that can still erode retirees' overall purchasing power.
Will a 3.8% COLA actually protect retirees from rising Medicare and living costs, or will their purchasing power continue to erode?
Could ongoing energy shocks and global supply chain shifts make high inflation, and thus larger but insufficient COLAs, the new normal for seniors?
How might proposed Social Security reforms—like the Six Figure Limit or switching to CPI-E—change the outlook for future beneficiaries?