Experts say prediction markets will not replace polling
Updated
Updated · Undark Magazine · May 5
Experts say prediction markets will not replace polling
15 articles · Updated · Undark Magazine · May 5
After Polymarket implied a 58-42 Trump edge and drew more than $3.5bn in 2024 election bets, researchers said markets and polls measure different things.
Analysts said markets can aid forecasting in unusual situations but remain vulnerable to thin trading, wealthy traders, wash trading, insider risks and regulatory scrutiny, especially on crypto-based platforms.
Recent studies found Polymarket called Trump's win but was not clearly better than poll-based models overall and performed worse in many congressional races, while partnerships with major news outlets have expanded.
As prediction markets grow, will they become reliable news sources or high-stakes digital casinos?
With billions at stake, can regulators stop insiders from profiting on classified government secrets?