It now sees growth at 0.5%-0.7%, down from 0.9%-1.3%, after attacks cut oil export capacity by about 1 million barrels a day.
Strikes on Baltic ports and Novorossiysk's Sheskharis terminal, plus the Tuapse refinery outage, pushed April refinery throughput to its lowest since late 2009 and forced output curbs.
CMAKP also cut its 2027 outlook, warned sanctions and possible Druzhba disruptions could further hit energy exports, and said first-quarter GDP already shrank 0.3%.
As Ukrainian drones cripple its oil industry, is Russia's economy spiraling into an irreversible collapse?
With its economy in a 'death zone,' can Russia's war machine outlast its own financial implosion?
Beyond drone strikes, is a silent demographic crisis actually sealing Russia's long-term economic fate?
2026 Economic Fallout: Ukrainian Drone Campaign Cuts Russian Oil Exports by 1 Million Barrels Daily, GDP Growth Nears Stagnation
Overview
In early 2026, Ukraine intensified drone strikes targeting Russia's oil infrastructure, causing a loss of about 1 million barrels per day—20% of Russia's export capacity—and reducing refinery throughput to its lowest since 2009. This damage forced Russia's main economic forecaster to slash the 2026 GDP growth forecast to under 1%. Despite global oil prices soaring above $120 per barrel due to combined disruptions including Middle East conflicts, Russia's budget remains constrained by conservative price assumptions, limiting fiscal relief. European support has bolstered Ukraine's drone production and campaign, while Russia faces deepening economic fragility marked by falling corporate profits, low business confidence, high inflation, and shrinking investment. Efforts to restore oil capacity are slow and hindered by ongoing attacks, signaling prolonged economic challenges ahead.