6 articles · Updated · The Christian Science Monitor · May 3
The forecast follows a 24% jump in US grocery prices since 2020 and a 2.4% year-on-year increase over the last year, hitting young people, families and low-income households hardest.
Higher energy costs across farming, fertiliser, transport, processing and retail are amplifying pressure, while drought has pushed beef prices up and tariffs and weather have lifted tomato prices.
Food inflation has slowed from 2022's 9.9% surge, but groceries remain Americans' top affordability concern; meanwhile, 2024 food waste fell 2.2% as households cut waste and increased food-bank donations.
As global crises drive up food costs, can reducing household waste truly offset the financial strain on families?
The U.S. cattle herd is at a 75-year low. When, if ever, will beef prices become affordable again?
With a key global strait now closed, will American farms face a crippling fertilizer shortage before the next harvest?
2026 Food Price Outlook: Eggs Plunge 27.4% While Beef and Dining Out Costs Surge
Overview
The USDA forecasts a 3.1% overall increase in food prices for 2026, with grocery prices rising moderately by 2.5% and restaurant prices climbing faster at 3.7%, driven largely by higher labor and operational costs. Beef prices are expected to surge up to 10.1% due to tight cattle supplies, strong demand, and rising fuel costs linked to geopolitical conflict. In contrast, egg prices are set to drop sharply by 27.4% as the laying hen population recovers from past avian flu outbreaks. Supply chain pressures also push up sugar, sweets, and beverage prices. These price differences are prompting consumers to cook more at home, increasing grocery spending, while lower-income households face the greatest challenges amid ongoing risks like new disease outbreaks and climate events.