Political insiders exploit prediction markets, new data shows

6 articles · Updated · PYMNTS.com · May 3

The findings follow the indictment of a U.S. Army soldier accused of using classified information on a planned US raid on Venezuela to profit on Polymarket.
The report says the data provides hard evidence that politically connected traders may be using non-public information to place lucrative bets before events become widely known.
The case adds to scrutiny of prediction markets as they expand, raising concerns that platforms meant to forecast events can also become vehicles for insider trading.

Will regulating prediction markets to stop insiders destroy their ability to forecast future events?

Can AI unmask anonymous traders who turn classified military intelligence into personal profit?

When state secrets become winning bets, is it a financial crime or an intelligence failure?