Gannon Ken Van Dyke faces first US prediction market insider trading arrest

7 articles · Updated · samf.substack.com · May 3

The US special forces master sergeant allegedly made $400,000 by betting on the timing of a raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
The report says similar cases have involved manipulated weather readings in Paris and bets tied to Israeli strikes, highlighting how traders can exploit privileged information or influence outcomes.
With Polymarket and Kalshi volume reaching $50bn in 2025 from $16bn in 2024, the piece warns rapid growth is widening risks of insider trading and market-distorting feedback loops.

Could the explosive growth of prediction markets actually undermine national security and public trust instead of improving forecasting accuracy?

How might regulators prevent insider trading and manipulation on anonymous, decentralized prediction platforms without stifling innovation?