Prediction markets evolve into a $240 billion industry
Updated
Updated · CoinDesk · May 2
Prediction markets evolve into a $240 billion industry
6 articles · Updated · CoinDesk · May 2
A Bitget Wallet and Polymarket report said Polymarket's March volume hit $25.7 billion, based on 1.29 million first-quarter wallets, with active wallets more than tripling in six months.
The report says growth is being driven by retail users trading more often rather than placing bigger bets, with more than 82% of users trading under $10,000 in the quarter.
Crypto is the main entry point, but users are expanding into politics, sports and macroeconomic events as prediction prices increasingly appear alongside traditional data in media and financial analysis.
With federal regulators and states clashing for control, what is the ultimate fate of America's prediction market boom?
As institutions enter prediction markets, can they be secured from insiders trading on classified government or military information?
By pricing everything from inflation to conflict, are we building a smarter society or just a global casino?
Prediction Markets Surge to $60B YTD in 2026 Amid Regulatory Battles and $1 Trillion Growth Forecast
Overview
The prediction market sector is rapidly expanding, with trading volumes soaring from $15.8 billion in 2024 to $63.5 billion in 2025, and early 2026 volumes already surpassing the previous year. This growth is driven by leading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, technological innovations like blockchain and AI, and increasing institutional participation, including upcoming ETFs. However, the market faces significant regulatory challenges due to conflicting state and federal oversight, alongside risks of insider trading and manipulation. Strong compliance efforts and regulatory collaboration are crucial to maintaining trust. If these hurdles are overcome, the market is projected to reach $1 trillion in volume by 2030, fueled by diversification, retail accessibility, and institutional engagement.