Analysts raise 2026 oil price forecasts on Iran war disruption
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Apr 30
Analysts raise 2026 oil price forecasts on Iran war disruption
14 articles · Updated · Reuters · Apr 30
A Reuters poll of 32 economists projects Brent at $86.38 a barrel and WTI at $80.07, the second upward revision since fighting began in late February.
Brent has surged above $120, its highest in more than four years, as the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts supplies and keeps prices elevated even if tensions ease.
Analysts say recovery in Middle East output and exports could take months or years, while war-related losses may push the market into deficit and curb demand growth.
Could the unprecedented loss of oil supply from the Strait of Hormuz spark a global recession and reshape energy geopolitics for years to come?
With the UAE leaving OPEC and Middle East supply crippled, how might oil and fertilizer shortages transform global food security and economic stability?
2026 Oil Crisis: Strait of Hormuz Shutdown and Iran Blockade Trigger Unprecedented Market Disruption
Overview
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in early 2026 caused a historic collapse in global oil supply, with Gulf exports dropping sharply and inventories plunging. This disruption, worsened by a U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports that slashed Iran's oil exports and forced storage to near capacity, tightened the market further. High oil prices surged, triggering global inflation, demand contraction, and severe economic impacts, especially in Europe and Japan. Clearing mines and resolving insurance issues delay the strait's reopening, prolonging supply shortages. Without swift resolution, prolonged disruptions could push prices above $120 per barrel and cause lasting damage to Iran's production, reshaping energy markets and accelerating shifts toward energy security and diversification.