Steve Hilton leads California governor polls before primary
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · May 2
Steve Hilton leads California governor polls before primary
15 articles · Updated · The Guardian · May 2
With under six weeks until the primary, the Republican is narrowly ahead in most polls despite Democrats’ two-to-one voter registration edge and legislative supermajorities.
His rise has been helped by a split Democratic field after Eric Swalwell quit amid misconduct allegations he denies, while Hilton also leads in individual donors and campaigns heavily in person.
California’s open primary could let two Republicans advance, though November remains difficult in a strongly Democratic state where Hilton argues living costs, unemployment and one-party rule are driving demand for change.
Is a grassroots-only campaign a viable new path to victory in a state as large as California?
How can California's next governor fix a structural deficit while also promising significant tax cuts?
What specific policies could effectively reverse California's ongoing population decline driven by high costs?
GOP Lockout Threat Looms as Steve Hilton Leads Volatile California Governor Primary
Overview
The 2026 California gubernatorial primary is highly volatile, with Republican Steve Hilton leading polls at 16% support, boosted by Donald Trump's endorsement and strong fundraising. However, Trump's backing has caused divisions within the GOP, as rival Chad Bianco narrowly won the party convention endorsement. A crowded Democratic field risks splitting liberal votes, raising the possibility that both top spots could go to Republicans under California's top-two primary system. This scenario, known as a GOP lockout, is made more likely by 26% undecided voters and recent candidate withdrawals. If it occurs, it could trigger efforts to repeal the primary system and lead to legislative gridlock with a Republican governor facing a Democratic supermajority.