Two months into the Iran war, alternatives move only 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels a day versus Hormuz's usual 20 million, while about a fifth of global LNG exports remain exposed.
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the UAE's Adcop have both been hit by Iranian drone strikes, while Egypt's Sumed line constrains Red Sea rerouting and Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar lack adequate alternatives.
Kuwait has extended force majeure, Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG has no bypass, and analysts say replacing Hormuz with pipelines would take years, cost hundreds of billions and still leave terminals vulnerable.
Could building more pipelines or alternative routes ever truly protect global energy supplies from geopolitical threats like those now crippling the Gulf?
With the Strait of Hormuz nearly shut and pipelines under attack, is the world facing a long-term energy crisis that can't be easily fixed?
As force majeure spreads and Qatar's LNG exports halt, how soon can Gulf energy flows realistically recover even if the war ends tomorrow?
The 95% Closure of the Strait of Hormuz: Global Energy Shock and Gulf States’ $290 Billion Iran-Proofing Response
Overview
The crisis began on February 28, 2026, when U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader, prompting Iran to seal the Strait of Hormuz on March 4, blocking 20 million barrels per day of oil. This caused a 95% drop in tanker traffic and sent oil prices soaring from $102 to $150 per barrel by May. Gulf states used pipelines to export some oil, but these routes were limited and vulnerable to attacks. The U.S. responded with a naval blockade, escalating tensions and leading to retaliatory seizures of ships by Iran. In response, Gulf countries launched a $290 billion plan to reduce dependence on the Strait, while also accelerating an arms race and defense integration. Globally, the disruption triggered severe economic pressure and accelerated efforts to diversify energy sources and routes.