The Democratic Republic of the Congo, which produces about 70% of global cobalt supply, halted exports in early 2025 after cobalt prices fell by more than half between 2022 and 2024.
The drop followed the rise of lithium-iron-phosphate batteries, which use no cobalt, exposing how fast-changing clean-energy technologies can destabilise mineral-dependent economies.
The report says critical minerals face greater geopolitical and market uncertainty than oil, with China dominating refining and producer states needing stronger institutions, long-term contracts and economic diversification.
Could the rapid shift in battery technology make today's critical mineral investments obsolete almost overnight, risking a new global economic crisis?
With China controlling most mineral processing, what real options do countries have to secure their supply chains without triggering geopolitical conflict?
How can producing nations escape the 'resource curse' and ensure that the mineral boom truly benefits local communities rather than deepening inequality?
How DRC’s 96,600 Ton Annual Cobalt Export Quota Reshapes Global Battery Supply Chains Through 2027
Overview
In early 2025, a massive cobalt oversupply from Chinese-backed mining caused prices to crash, threatening the DRC's fiscal stability. In response, the DRC imposed a complete export ban, later replaced by a strict quota system capping exports at less than half of previous levels. This controlled supply led to severe market tightness and a sharp price surge through 2026. Major producers like Glencore adapted by prioritizing copper production and managing quotas strategically. The quota system also targeted illegal mining and faced enforcement challenges amid regional conflict. Globally, the supply deficit spurred industry shifts toward diversification, recycling, and battery innovation, while the DRC’s assertive resource control set a precedent for future critical mineral geopolitics.