Low Earth Orbit faces catastrophic collision risk within 2.8 days
Updated
Updated · Earth.com · May 1
Low Earth Orbit faces catastrophic collision risk within 2.8 days
9 articles · Updated · Earth.com · May 1
Sarah Thiele and colleagues said that by June 2025, a 24-hour loss of avoidance control would carry a 30% chance of a major debris-producing crash.
The study says crowded mega-constellations now generate close approaches every 22 seconds across LEO, while solar storms can increase drag, disrupt navigation and block collision-avoidance commands.
Researchers said the danger has risen sharply from about 121 days in 2018, warning that an extreme event beyond the May 2024 Gannon Storm could threaten space access for generations.
A solar storm could trigger a satellite collision cascade in 72 hours. Is our orbital infrastructure a ticking time bomb?
Are millions of new satellites about to cause irreversible light and radio pollution for Earth?
As satellite numbers soar, why did the US government just roll back rules for removing rocket debris from orbit?