Kalshi traders give Republicans and Democrats a 50% chance each, while Polymarket prices Democrats at 52% and Republicans at 50%.
Senate odds tightened after Republicans' 67% start-of-year advantage eroded, with March declines accelerating as traders priced in the political fallout from the U.S.-Iran war.
President Donald Trump's approval has fallen in many polls, and Bank of America said shifting election odds may be increasing pressure for a resolution in Iran as Democrats still face a difficult Senate map.
Given the economic and political fallout, how might prolonged conflict reshape both global energy markets and U.S. election forecasts?
As the U.S.-Iran conflict disrupts oil markets and public opinion sours, what are the real chances of a swift resolution before the War Powers deadline?
With prediction markets under scrutiny and legal battles heating up, could new regulations fundamentally change how Americans bet on political outcomes?