Mohamed El-Erian warns global economy faces recession within eight weeks

13 articles · Updated · Fortune · Apr 30

He said recession can still be avoided if the Strait of Hormuz reopens within four to eight weeks after a third month of Iran-US-Israel conflict.
Iranian threats to shipping have choked Middle East oil flows, lifted futures and fuel costs, and raised fears in Europe and Asia over shortages, including a warning of six weeks of aviation fuel stocks.
El-Erian said the US is relatively better insulated by domestic energy supplies, but economists including Moody's Mark Zandi still see fragile growth, rising unemployment and worsening recession risks from higher oil prices.

Is this energy crisis the final push for a green transition, or will economic pain entrench fossil fuel dependency?

With oil supplies crippled, what is the next domino to fall for global food security and supply chains?

Is a global recession now unavoidable, or can the world economy survive its most vital energy artery being severed?