Ahead of Saturday's 20-horse Run for the Roses, analysts say a fast first half-mile of 45 or 46 seconds could set up closers such as Renegade, Fulleffort, Commandment and The Puma.
Renegade's post 1 draw, winless since Ferdinand in 1986, is seen as less damaging because his closing style may offset rail trouble if he gets a clear trip.
Trainers say the field lacks a dominant front-runner like American Pharoah, making pace pressure from speed horses more likely to stretch the race and favour late runners.
With historical data favoring his rivals, can morning line favorite Renegade break the 39-year curse of Post 1?
Will the 152nd Derby prove analytics have finally surpassed traditional wisdom in predicting the world's most famous horse race?
As AI predicts an upset, will the Kentucky Derby's 'closers' race' narrative actually hold true on race day?