IMF cuts global growth forecast amid Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure

14 articles · Updated · Foreign Policy · Apr 29

It lowered this year's outlook to 3.1% from 3.4%, and warned growth could sink to 2% with inflation at 6% if oil and gas flows stay blocked until next year.
Former IMF deputy managing director Gita Gopinath said downside risks dominate, with low-income countries and energy importers facing the heaviest strain from higher fuel, food and financing costs.
The disruption could also hit tourism, airlines and manufacturing supply chains, while countries such as India face currency and subsidy pressure; Gopinath urged greater energy resilience through renewables and stronger grids.

With conflicting forecasts, is the Hormuz crisis a manageable shock or the trigger for a devastating global recession?

As the US economy thrives on the crisis, will this growing global imbalance lead to a more fractured world?

Could this energy crisis be the unexpected catalyst that finally forces a rapid global transition to renewable energy sources?