The World Uncertainty Index has roughly doubled since early 2025, yet the MSCI World has tripled since 2008 while world GDP grew about 50%.
The report says this calm rests on three weakening supports: heavy concentration in top stocks, expectations of central bank rescues, and a financial system increasingly trading within itself.
It warns diversification may fail against systemic shocks, citing 2008, 2020 and 2022, and argues investors should focus on real economic activity, resilience and delayed risks in private markets.
Can 'impact investing' truly shield portfolios from a systemic market crash?
Is your diversified index fund now just a high-risk bet on AI?
What happens to the global economy when the US becomes uninsurable from climate risk?
Markets are calm, but a key global oil route is closed. What are investors missing?
Is extreme market concentration a bubble, or a rational bet on the future?
As AI accelerates inequality, what is the breaking point for social stability?