Gamblers bet millions on future US measles cases via prediction markets

8 articles · Updated · New Scientist · Apr 29

Since January, nearly $9 million has been wagered on measles outbreaks in the US through Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
Experts note these markets, though controversial, may provide surprisingly accurate forecasts useful for epidemiological modelling, as seen when 2025 predictions closely matched actual case numbers.
While prediction markets harness crowd wisdom, scientists caution they cannot replace expert models and raise ethical concerns, especially as measles cases continue to rise nationwide.

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