PCE price index expected to rise 3.6% annually after Iran war oil surge

9 articles · Updated · Barron's · Apr 29

Economists forecast the March PCE inflation report, due Thursday, will show a sharp increase from February’s 2.8% to 3.6% annually, with a 0.63% monthly rise.
The surge is attributed to oil price spikes following the Iran war, with core PCE projected at 3.2% annually, up from 3%. The Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target remains unmet.
Fed officials view the energy shock as likely temporary, but ongoing supply disruptions and tariff pressures complicate inflation control. The next Fed meeting, chaired by Kevin Warsh, is scheduled for mid-June.

How will the Fed's new leader tackle inflation if the war's impact proves long-lasting?

If the new Fed chair uses different metrics, will our official inflation rate suddenly drop?

Beyond energy, what hidden factors are keeping everyday prices for Americans so stubbornly high?

Is the Iran war a convenient excuse for inflation that was already out of control?

How much are last year's tariffs still adding to the high prices on store shelves?

With the Strait of Hormuz closed, how long until this supply shock permanently changes prices?