Economists project 2.3% US GDP growth in first quarter of 2026

9 articles · Updated · Barron's · Apr 29

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its Q1 GDP estimate, with FactSet and NY Fed forecasts near 2.3%, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025.
Growth is driven by resilient consumer spending, boosted by higher tax refunds, and strong business investment, especially in AI-related capital goods, despite headwinds from higher gasoline prices and weaker residential investment.
Trade and partial government shutdowns weighed on growth, while housing investment is expected to decline 4.8%. The Atlanta Fed estimates a lower 1.2% growth, reflecting uncertainty amid cross-currents in economic data.

Is the U.S. economy heading for stagflation, despite official reassurances?

Will AI-driven investment be enough to power the economy through soaring energy prices?

Why is the housing market slumping while other business investment is booming?

With consumer sentiment at a record low, can a tax refund truly sustain spending?

Can new tax breaks for businesses offset the drag from high interest rates?

How will the ongoing Middle East conflict reshape global trade and U.S. inflation?