Global trade enters new phase as emerging economies gain from geopolitical realignment
Updated
Updated · Valor International · Apr 27
Global trade enters new phase as emerging economies gain from geopolitical realignment
2 articles · Updated · Valor International · Apr 27
A McKinsey Global Institute study finds US imports and China’s exports hit records in 2025, with ASEAN’s manufactured exports rising nearly 14% and India’s electronics exports up 40%.
Brazil expanded agricultural exports to China by 13%, while Southeast Asia and India deepened roles in global manufacturing. Trade linked to artificial intelligence, especially semiconductors and data center equipment, drove about a third of global trade expansion.
The report highlights that advanced economies and China are reorienting trade toward aligned partners, with multinationals facing uncertainty. Structural shifts—AI, emerging market growth, and geopolitics—are expected to shape trade for years to come.
To what extent can India and ASEAN sustain their export growth if US and China trade policies remain volatile?
Will China's pivot to supplying capital goods and deepening ties with emerging economies accelerate South-South trade dominance?
How will the fragmentation of global trade impact innovation, sustainability, and long-term economic growth across regions?
Could the US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs trigger a new era of unpredictable trade policy and global market volatility?
How are multinational companies balancing cost efficiency with supply chain resilience amid rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions?
What risks do emerging markets face if AI-driven trade finance systems exclude them due to limited historical data?