Jerome Powell seen likely to resign from Fed between May 15 and May 22

8 articles · Updated · CNBC · Apr 29

Polymarket bettors assign an 87% probability Powell steps down in that window, following the DOJ dropping its probe. Kalshi bettors see a 30% chance he resigns by June, rising to 81% by year-end.
Powell is expected to address his future at a news conference after Wednesday's Fed meeting, which may be his last as chair if Kevin Warsh is confirmed by mid-June. Warsh's nomination advanced in the Senate Tuesday.
Powell previously said he would not resign until the DOJ inquiry ended. Tensions have persisted between Powell and President Trump over interest rate policy, with concerns about Fed independence amid Warsh's nomination.

How might the end of the DOJ probe and Powell’s next move influence public trust in the Fed’s independence?

Could Jerome Powell’s decision to stay as a Fed governor reshape the balance of power at the central bank?

Will Warsh’s leadership mark a shift away from quantitative easing and forward guidance for good?

Are current rules and traditions enough to protect the Fed from political pressure during periods of economic stress?

How might Kevin Warsh’s unconventional policy ideas, including fewer meetings and a new inflation framework, impact markets and the economy?

Could legislative reforms to narrow the Fed’s mandate fundamentally change how monetary policy is conducted in the U.S.?