Analysts forecast 2.2% rise in U.S. first-quarter GDP ahead of data release

8 articles · Updated · Real Economy Blog · Apr 29

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the official Q1 GDP figures on Thursday, with nonresidential investment, consumption, and government spending driving growth.
Residential investment and net exports are expected to weigh on GDP, while inventory accumulation may offer a modest boost. Analysts now see a 30% chance of recession in the next year.
Growth projections for 2026 have been cut from 2.4% to 1.7% due to Middle East war-related supply shocks, though large tech firms' AI investments could support nonresidential spending.

Can a half-trillion-dollar AI boom truly shield the U.S. economy from a global supply shock?

With conflicting forecasts from economists, what key indicator will signal if a recession is truly imminent?

Can the struggling U.S. housing market recover while tech pours billions into digital infrastructure?

What is the hidden environmental cost of powering America's AI-driven economic growth?

Is the massive AI infrastructure buildout a sustainable growth engine or the next economic bubble?

How will the Middle East conflict reshape global supply chains beyond just oil and food prices?