BNP Paribas warns $200 oil and supply shocks risk global recession

8 articles · Updated · MarketWatch · Apr 29

The bank's latest outlook highlights that Brent oil has surged to over $114 a barrel, up 88% this year, with global GDP growth forecast at 3%.
BNP Paribas identifies $200 oil, worsening Middle East supply bottlenecks, and tighter monetary policy as concurrent risks that could drive growth below its 2.5% recession threshold.
The outlook notes potential disruptions to microchip and fertilizer supply chains, while BNP remains overweight equities and forecasts the S&P 500 at 7,500 by year-end.

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