NIESR warns UK faces recession risk if Middle East crisis escalates

9 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Apr 29

NIESR now projects UK inflation could exceed 5% and interest rates may rise sharply if US-Iran hostilities resume and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
The think tank says a prolonged conflict would significantly reduce UK economic output, potentially pushing the country into recession later this year.
Earlier NIESR reports estimated the crisis could cost the UK economy £35 billion by 2027, with previous forecasts showing growth slowing to 0.9% and inflation peaking at 4.1%.

Why is the UK economy uniquely vulnerable to this Middle East oil shock?

Is a UK recession now unavoidable, and how severe could it become?

How will British families survive soaring costs without significant government aid?

Can the Bank of England fight record inflation without crushing the economy?

Is the world on the brink of a 1970s-style stagflation crisis?

Will the UAE’s shock OPEC exit stabilize oil prices or ignite more chaos?