Prediction market traders lose $131 million as bots outperform humans

2 articles · Updated · The Japan Times · Apr 28

Over 100,000 Polymarket accounts each lost at least $1,000 since early 2025, nearly double the number of profitable accounts.
A small group of automated bots captured the majority of profits, according to Dune's analysis of Polymarket trade records.
Despite social media promotion as a side hustle for young Americans, most participants are losing significant sums to algorithmic trading on major prediction platforms.

Beyond the military, how much insider trading is secretly happening on these platforms?

Are prediction markets just high-tech casinos where AI bots are the new house?

With no clear IRS rules, how should you report prediction market profits on your taxes?

How can regulators police AI-driven markets with shrinking enforcement teams?

Can human intuition ever beat the lightning speed of trading bots?

When does betting on real-world events cross an ethical line?