World Bank forecasts 16% commodity price surge amid Middle East conflict

11 articles · Updated · The Wall Street Journal · Apr 28

Brent crude is projected to average $86 a barrel in 2026, with urea prices up 60% and fertilizer prices rising 31% due to disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Developing economies face weaker growth—3.6% versus January’s 4% forecast—and higher inflation, with central banks in Pakistan and the Philippines already raising rates to counter rising costs.
The World Bank warns the poorest populations will be hardest hit, and prolonged disruptions could further elevate food and energy prices, potentially lowering future crop yields and intensifying global economic pressures.

With oil forecasts ranging from $60 to $150, what single factor will determine the market's true direction this year?

Beyond oil, which lesser-known commodity disruption from this conflict poses the biggest hidden threat to the global economy?

Could surging gold prices signal a permanent shift away from the traditional post-Cold War financial order?

Will this massive energy shock be the catalyst that finally accelerates the world's transition to renewable energy sources?

How are central banks planning to fight stagflation as war drives up inflation and slows global economic growth?

As the Iran war chokes global supply, is China's strategic oil reserve a model for other nations to follow?