JRC researchers map 9.3% of global land as highly vulnerable to disease outbreaks
Updated
Updated · Earth.com · Apr 26
JRC researchers map 9.3% of global land as highly vulnerable to disease outbreaks
5 articles · Updated · Earth.com · Apr 26
The study, led by Angela Fanelli, highlights hotspots in Latin America and Oceania, with Papua New Guinea and Republic of Congo facing high risk and limited health infrastructure.
Using machine learning and satellite data, the model shows population density as the strongest outbreak driver, with climate change and land development increasing spillover risks from animals to humans.
The research urges global cooperation and preparedness, noting that strong health systems, early detection, and vaccine access are crucial as outbreaks can rapidly impact travel, trade, and supply chains worldwide.
As extreme weather multiplies in some regions, are we prepared for the climate-driven pandemics of tomorrow?
We now have a map of future pandemic hotspots. Will the world act on this warning in time?
With global health funding cut by 21%, how can we protect the world's most vulnerable disease hotspots?
As the illegal wildlife trade explodes, is global cooperation strong enough to prevent the next zoonotic spillover?
Can AI truly predict the next pandemic, or are we ignoring the unpredictable human behaviors that fuel outbreaks?
If human, animal, and environmental health are linked, why do our global policies still treat them separately?
Global Epidemic Risk Index Identifies Papua New Guinea and Congo as Highest Threat Nations
Overview
A landmark 2025 study by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre used machine learning and satellite data to map global zoonotic disease risk, revealing that 9.3% of Earth's land is highly vulnerable, with Latin America and Oceania most affected. The study identified human-driven environmental changes—such as climate change, land-use shifts, population density, and biodiversity loss—as key drivers of outbreak risk. It also developed an Epidemic Risk Index highlighting Papua New Guinea and the Republic of Congo as highest-risk countries due to high biological risk and limited health capacity. These insights emphasize the urgent need for integrated One Health strategies combining environmental management and strengthened health systems to prevent future pandemics.