Goldman Sachs predicts Shanghai and Shenzhen property markets to recover and rise 15 percent
Updated
Updated · Yicai Global · Apr 21
Goldman Sachs predicts Shanghai and Shenzhen property markets to recover and rise 15 percent
13 articles · Updated · Yicai Global · Apr 21
Goldman Sachs forecasts Shanghai and Shenzhen will bottom out this year, with house prices climbing 15 percent over three years, ahead of other major Chinese cities.
Recovery signs include a surge in second-hand home sales last month—Shanghai saw 31,215 transactions, Shenzhen’s rose 151 percent to 7,225—while national new home sales fell 16.7 percent year-on-year in Q1.
Narrowing rental yield and mortgage rate spreads, increased mortgage lending, and a potential stock market rebound are seen as supporting factors for the property market’s stabilization and future growth.
As prices rise in Shanghai, has the dream of homeownership died for youth?
Will Beijing's 'new model' for housing kill the property market's recovery?
With top cities recovering, are smaller Chinese cities facing a permanent slump?
Could a Hong Kong-style stock rally truly save China's property market?
Is China's property rebound real, or just a mirage shaped by censored data?
Shanghai and Shenzhen Show 0.2% Price Growth as China’s Real Estate Investment Falls 11.2% in Q1 2026
Overview
China's property market shows early signs of recovery concentrated in Shanghai and Shenzhen, where new home prices rose slightly and second-hand sales surged following targeted policy easing like reduced down payments and lower mortgage rates. These cities benefit from strong economic fundamentals, including skilled workforces and scarce quality housing, attracting buyers and investors. However, the broader national market remains weak, with real estate investment and sales continuing to decline, driven by oversupply, fragile buyer confidence, and developer debt crises. While Shanghai and Shenzhen may lead a gradual rebound, the overall recovery is fragile and uneven, heavily dependent on sustained government support and improved economic confidence.