NDSU economists project $636 per ton fall urea price amid Strait of Hormuz closure
Updated
Updated · Pro Farmer · Apr 22
NDSU economists project $636 per ton fall urea price amid Strait of Hormuz closure
2 articles · Updated · Pro Farmer · Apr 22
The closure has choked off about a third of global urea transport, with 2026 prepay prices 35% above precrisis levels and only 60% of U.S. farmers securing nitrogen for the season.
Farm diesel prices have surged 46% since late February, intensifying input cost pressures during peak planting. Brazil and the EU are expected to face the greatest fertilizer supply challenges as global demand destruction looms.
Infrastructure damage and shipping disruptions mean fertilizer prices may not normalize until 2028. Major importers are shifting to strategic stockpiling, adding unpredictability to global trade and potentially supporting higher long-term prices.
How will record fertilizer costs permanently reshape American farming and crop choices?
Which nations are most vulnerable as this crisis threatens a global food supply shock?
With farm costs soaring, how will this crisis impact your family's grocery bill?
Beyond the ceasefire, how long until damaged infrastructure allows fertilizer supplies to recover?
Is the global shift to stockpiling a smart defense or a dangerous new form of resource nationalism?
Is the market's optimism misplaced as a US naval blockade escalates tensions?
Prolonged Strait of Hormuz Blockade Sparks Multi-Year Fertilizer Shortage and Food Security Threats
Overview
In April 2026, the brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sparked a sharp drop in fertilizer prices, but renewed control by Iran quickly reversed this relief, causing extreme market volatility. The closure, triggered by escalating conflict, disrupted global fertilizer supply chains by blocking a critical shipping route and damaging key production facilities in the Persian Gulf. This led to sustained high fertilizer prices projected to last through 2027, severely impacting farmers worldwide. U.S. farmers face financial distress, with many unable to afford necessary fertilizer, forcing reduced application and risking lower yields. The crisis threatens global food security, driving inflation and prompting urgent calls for diversified supply chains and targeted support.